With 2025 just a week away, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg are already firing on all cylinders and parts of Los Angeles are burning.
Like the world at large, the music industry appears to be at an inflection point, with its dominant subscription streaming business model being successfully challenged. As growth slows in the U.S. and Europe, labels and artists must contend with an influx of new music, disruption from distribution startups and the potential ban of TikTok in the U.S. Computers can write songs about a dark future, and computers can write songs about a dark future.
On a lighter note, here are my predictions for the coming year: the good, the bad, the ugly—and the nerdy.
TikTok’s time won’t run out, but its problems won’t go away
The lawsuit against TikTok is more restrictive than many imagine – the United States has always restricted foreign ownership of certain media (which is why Sony is the only company that owns a movie studio but not a television network). But at a time when both parties need to show they matter to young people, TikTok’s availability is a tantalizing issue. So it’s easy to imagine a compromise – one that will endure unless tensions with China escalate and the mysteriously popular film depicts Taiwan as a divided province.
Catalogs will continue to sell – but are clearly somewhat overpriced
The market for publishing catalogs and other rights depends largely on economics, but demographics are also important. Baby boomer performers and songwriters are at an age when it comes to estate planning, and since many lead complex personal lives, selling assets is often simpler than dividing them. This, coupled with continued growth, will keep the market stable overall. But it turns out that at least some of these acquisitions weren’t worth the price. There are only so many blue-chip assets in any market.
Trump administration to resolve federal antitrust case against Live Nation, but some states won’t back down
President Joe BidenThe Trump administration has made antitrust a priority, and the Justice Department’s case against Live Nation is emblematic of its ambitions. (The situation is complicated.) Most Republicans disdain antitrust enforcement and the vice president-elect JD Vance Appearing to favor this, Trump’s consistent desire for clear victories on hot-button issues will tempt him to settle and declare victory. However, states joining the Justice Department case may not agree, and they may continue to pressure the company in other ways.
This will be the winter of our discontent – but it won’t last long
Some fights only have winners. The six songs featured in Kendrick Lamar and Drake’s rap battle have collectively generated nearly $15.4 million in streaming, digital sales and publishing revenue as of the end of November, according to the report. advertising billboard Estimated based on Luminate data. No wonder Drake’s freestyle “Fighting Irish” already briefly appeared on January 3rd. After this, hip-hop fans will move on.
More mergers are coming—and at a steep price
The Trump administration may take steps to limit market concentration in certain areas of the technology and media businesses, but the recorded music business will not be a priority. If European regulators approve Universal Music Group’s acquisition of Downtown Music Holdings, another record company will acquire another distributor. But at what price? Sales prices for companies such as catalogs are high, especially for distributors, which is strategically important to maintain market share and secure access to talent. How much is too much? We’ll find out soon enough.
Concert ticket prices will continue to rise — and Live Nation is getting the blame and the money
As my colleague Dave Brooks points out, some concertgoers have been hit with the price shock longer than others, but they still pay top dollar to see their favorite artists. Big shows have seen the biggest price increases, driven by FOMO and the ability to tell everyone you’re there via social media. Live Nation will take responsibility and make more money, although price is more related to supply and demand – there are only a limited number of tickets available for circulation.
“Streaming 2.0” is going to take off — and we’re going to figure out what it means
Subscription streaming saved the recorded music business, but its flaws are starting to show. Online platforms are flooded with AI elevator music and sped-up versions of existing songs. Meanwhile, rights holders are pushing prices higher. The solution is “Streaming 2.0,” UMG said, a concept it proposed during UMG’s Capital Markets Day presentation and mentioned again when the company announced its new deal with Amazon Music. The basic idea is to segment pricing and increase ARPU by providing more value to super fans. We’ll get some details this year.
Streaming services will set themselves apart from rivals — at least a little
The tiered pricing model implicit in Streaming 2.0 means online platforms can be incentivized to offer extra content or features to super fans. Exclusive content died in 2016, when the industry’s focus was on growing subscribers. Now it needs to make some of them pay more. Think of extra tracks, like those that find their way into big-box retailers, or behind-the-scenes footage – content that’s valuable to a relatively small number of superfans but won’t be of interest to casual fans.
Emerging markets will continue to emerge – but they will last for a while
As streaming growth slows in the U.S. and Europe, all eyes are on emerging markets — countries in South America, Africa and the Middle East. The growth is impressive and the excitement is palpable, but some of these markets have very little revenue and will take a while to reach the importance people expect. Over the next decade, most of them will bring in less revenue than vinyl records in the U.S.
At least one big star will throw his weight behind Trump — and many fans won’t care
As Trump prepares to take office, resistance is losing staying power — especially in the media industry. CEO of The Walt Disney Company Bob Iger Signed settlement agreement with Trump and Meta CEO over subsidiary ABC Mark Zuckerberg Declaring that the company will prioritize free speech is like kissing Trump’s ring. Before 2026, at least one pop superstar will follow suit, either out of genuine enthusiasm or simply because it’s easier. The expected outrage doesn’t happen.
