CISAC predicts that by 2028, the market for Gen AI output will be worth more than $16 billion per year, but it may “cannibalize” 24% of music creators’ income

A new report from CISAC, the umbrella organization for global writers’ associations, makes a sobering prediction: Generative artificial intelligence could account for 24% of music creators’ income by 2028.

The news is almost as bad for creators in the audiovisual industry (television, film, video, etc.). By 2028, they will face losses twenty one% How much revenue would they make if generative AI didn’t exist.

This would mean cumulative losses 22 billion euros ($23.1 billionThe report concludes that within five years (2023 to 2028) the income of music and audiovisual creators will increase. For music creators alone, there are cumulative losses 10 billion euros ($10.5 billion) Between 2023 and 2028, the annual loss will be 4 billion euros ($4.2 billion) to that year.

That’s just the loss of income for creators; the report didn’t assess the impact on record labels and music publishers.

CISAC hires business consulting and services firm PMP strategy Conduct a “qualitative and quantitative” analysis of the impact of artificial intelligence in the coming years, focusing on three key questions:

• What will be the market size of artificial intelligence output in 5 years (2028)?
• What will be the associated revenue loss for creators by 2028?
• How much will generative AI tool/service providers earn by 2028?

Within the music industry, research predicts that Gen-AI outputs (i.e., partial and complete musical works created by artificial intelligence) will have cumulative value 40 billion euros ($42 billion) by 2028, by that year they will be worth 16 billion euros ($16.8 billion)each year.

Gen-AI services in music (i.e. tools that aid the music creation process) will be worth accumulating 8 billion euros ($8.4 billion) by 2028, the annual value is 4 billion euros ($4.2 billion) until then.

The study predicted “cannibalization” rates for different parts of the music industry, which is the percentage of revenue lost compared to what would have been the case in the absence of artificial intelligence.

it predicts 30% Music creators’ digital income will be taken away by artificial intelligence, and twenty two% of radio, television, live and background music revenue will be lost, and twenty one% CD and video revenue will be lost.

“Generative AI will experience ‘exponential’ growth in the coming years due to the use of copyrighted works to train models,” Helen MoynePMP Strategy Manager.

The study predicts that two trends will drive this trend: AI-generated music on streaming platforms and B2B music libraries, such as music used in restaurant and cafe backgrounds.

Artificial intelligence-generated music can explain 20% Revenue from streaming services, Moin said. at the same time, Report predicts incredible 60% By 2028, music in B2B libraries will be generated by artificial intelligenceAs AI-generated music becomes more widely available, companies seek to lower the cost of music licensing.

The report predicts that AI-generated music may become an important part of music on streaming platforms, as “music listeners become active curators, generating and sharing AI tracks.”

The report predicts that streaming platforms themselves could create AI-generated tracks, primarily mood music and passive playlists, that would be “pushed to users in personalized playlists.” Digital music publishers can also play a role in bringing AI-generated music to streaming platforms.

(This prospect may explain why some voices within the music industry are putting increasing pressure on streaming platforms to remove music created without authorization using artificial intelligence trained on copyrighted material.)

“We want policymakers to understand the urgent need to protect human creators and protect the interests of society, culture and creativity.”

Gadi Oron, CISAC

The study focused on earnings and did not assess the impact on employment. It also doesn’t estimate what the AI ​​market would look like if AI developers started paying to use copyrighted works to train their AIs.

“We want policymakers to understand the urgent need to protect human creators and protect the interests of society, culture and creativity,” said the Director General of CISAC. Gadiolong at a press conference to release the report on Tuesday (December 3).

“Many governments around the world, many international bodies such as the United Nations, are now looking at AI and developing their policies and approaches, and we want to provide them with evidence on the impact of AI on our industry.”

Oron pointed out that not a single AI developer has signed a licensing agreement with the 225 collective management organizations (CMOs), performing rights organizations (PROs) or other collective management organizations that are members of CISAC globally.

“Our association is engaging with hundreds of AI companies requesting permission to negotiate [recognizing] They’re using work that belongs to the creator…and that’s very difficult,” Oren said.

When it comes to artificial intelligence, things in the audiovisual industry seem to be just as difficult, if not more so, than in the music industry.

Generative AI will be used to create “complete” audiovisual works, such as user-generated content on social media. Research predicts that artificial intelligence will increasingly be used in low-cost television and streaming video production, especially children’s cartoons and advertising.

By 2028, audiovisual content translators and adapters will see 56% Their income is “cannibalized” by artificial intelligence, and screenwriters will lose 20% Revenue and Directors 15%.

Complete audiovisual projects generated by artificial intelligence will be valuable 48 billion euros ($50.5 billion) The study predicts until 2028. All in all, generative artificial intelligence in the music and audiovisual industry will start from 3 billion euros arrive 64 billion euros By 2028, Moyn said, “mainly by eroding the value of traditional and man-made works.”

“We need to maintain a clear line between AI assistance and human authorship.”

Angeles González Hindregue, CISAC

The CISAC vice-president said film producers were “really worried because… our working conditions could deteriorate and the value of our creative works could depreciate” Angeles Gonzalez-Cinder LeggDirector and screenwriter, former Minister of Culture of the Spanish government.

“That’s what we’re really against right now. We need to keep a clear line between AI assistance and human creation.

Nonetheless, CISAC leadership stressed that they are not opposed to the development of artificial intelligence itselfbut primarily opposes the unauthorized and uncompensated use of the works of human creators.

“Artificial intelligence can be and is a wonderful tool and is already being used in a variety of exciting ways…but this advancement must not come at the expense of the rights of creators… and ensure fair remuneration at the expense.

Bjorn Urvaus, CISAC

“Of course, we have no way and should not oppose artificial intelligence. We are not Luddites,” said Bjorn UrvausPresident of CISAC, best known as Aba.

“Artificial intelligence can be and is a great tool and is already used in all kinds of exciting ways. I’m using it myself, with some of these artificial intelligence models, and it can certainly enhance human creativity.

“But this progress must not come at the expense of creators’ rights… and ensuring fair compensation.”

Artists’ remuneration “must be non-negotiable,” Urvaus added. “Not only is this a moral stance, but it also makes good economic sense, as the concept of copyright has had and still has a huge impact on culture and the economy.”global music business