The value of music copyrights (including recordings and works) will grow by 11% to US$45.5 billion by 2023, making music 38% more valuable than the global film industry.
That’s according to a new report Will Pageformer chief economist Spotify and the British Collection Association Music PRSpublished on Page’s website, Pivotal Economics.
Page annotated $45.5 billion This number is “shocking” 26% Almost doubled since 2021 $25 billion He did the math for 2014.
“Next year (when we count 2024) we may see copyrights double in ten years. Make no mistake: these are boom times,” he wrote.
in, $28.5 billion – or 63% – In the form of income from recorded music (upwards 12% annual increase), although $12.9 billion organized by collective management organizations (CMOs, 11% annual increase) and $4.2 billion is the publisher’s direct income (rising 4% annual increase). Therefore, the composition introduces 37% total number.
“CMOs are seeing their product lines recover nearly 10 percent from the 2021 pandemic hit. 40% – But this year’s slowdown 11% It shows that the collection is returning to a steady growth pattern,” Page noted.
With global movie box office revenue US$33.2 billion What music rights will be worth now in 2023 38% It’s not just the film industry – it’s the complete opposite of what it was four years ago. 2019, cinema 33% Bigger than music copyright ($41.9 billion For movie theaters and US$31.6 billion for music).
“When I first did this exercise in 2015, if you had suggested that music might replace movies, you would have been laughed out of the room. At the time, the screen was bigger than the likes of Spotify and Netflix.
More importantly, box office revenue and music copyright revenue cannot be compared apples to apples. That’s because movie theaters themselves account for about half of a movie’s ticket price.
If we were to compare distributors’ share of total box office revenue (approximately $16.6 billion in 2023), then “music creators are worth approx. [triple] Like in the movies,” Page wrote.
“There’s no doubt about it: These are boom times.”
Will Page, “Critical Economics”
Of course, the revenue reversal between music and film has as much to do with the growth of music as it does with the decline of film.
Citing data from The Film Economist Ben KeanePage noted that while movie theaters were shuttered around the world, movies were still recovering from the hit of the pandemic. Movie spending in 2023 US$33.2 billion still $8.7 billion Down from 2019 peak $41.9 billion.
Cinemas have also been influenced by the rise of home entertainment (big-screen TVs, surround sound, etc.), which has moved screen time into the home—as evidenced by the boom in video streaming. But Page noted that it also had a positive impact on the music business.
“Movies share very little revenue with music rights (in the US they share no revenue, although sync revenue is paid upfront). Streamers, on the other hand, have to acquire more rights (performative and mechanical plus sync usage) , facing higher tariffs (title prices are often double those in cinemas), are now attracting larger audiences (consumers are investing more in their homes and spending less),” he wrote.
“This shift in attention, from a few hours in front of a screen to the same hour on the couch, has had a significant impact on the value of music rights past, present and future.”
Developed and emerging markets
Page drew attention to an interesting discrepancy in the data. While monitoring the market bright Earlier this year it was reported that global audio streaming had increased 15.1%, universal music groupThe company’s stock price took a hit when analysts interpreted its second-quarter earnings as meaning value The growth of these streams is only 4%.
“Why the divergence? The answer is the uneven nature of this growth — the free explosion [ad-supported] Rivers in emerging areas of the South, but value is deeply concentrated [paying subscriber] Streams in established areas of the north,” Page wrote.
This helps explain, for example, why India is on the verge of overtaking the United States to become the world’s largest streaming market by sales, but a far cry from the largest music market by revenue.
The world has a new net exporter of music
Page’s report also examines the state of the music import-export business and finds that the world is in a state of flux – not surprising in an age of Latin music, K-pop and other new international music phenomena.
One major change was the arrival of a new music exporter: South Korea. Traditionally, there have been three net exporters of musical works: the United States, the United Kingdom, and Sweden. Now, South Korea has been added to the list as its songwriting exports are slightly higher than its imports.
In 2023, the music export volume of the United States, the largest music exporter, was 2.4 times the import volume, while the export volume of Sweden, the second-ranked country, was 1.8 times the import volume. Calculated based on income flows between CMOs, UK exports are 1.6 times greater than imports, while South Korea’s ratio is 1.0 times.
However, Page pointed to the trend of “trade (or payment flows between CMOs) drying up”.
Sweden’s ratio is 1.8, well up from 2.7 in 2019.
Page said one factor is “glocalization” – the trend of local music in local languages becoming more popular even as streaming services globalize overall music consumption.
“As local music dominates the local market, there is less demand for (or trade in) foreign music,” he writes.
“Secondly, it’s not always Korean songwriters behind K-pop…. Songwriters all over the world are getting in on the act. Apparently, so are those savvy Swedish songwriters who frequently travel to Korea to work with K-pop artists Direct collaboration. Less obvious are Bulgarian artists, e.g. OKwhose song Mr. Rover Performed by Korean artists Kai – Recording rights remain in Seoul, but songwriter royalties return to Sofia [Bulgaria]”.
A boost for emerging markets
The increasing popularity of music from emerging markets in developed markets (such as Latin music or African music) also means that music is becoming a useful source of income for low-income countries. This is especially true since royalties per song played are higher in high-income countries.
Because of this difference, Mexican artists US$350 million Revenue in the United States in 2023 will be $200 That’s $1 million more than they would have earned watching the same stream back home in Mexico. Colombian artist wins $100 Millions in the United States – $78 They earned over $1 million for the same music consumption in Colombia, which is actually more than the total value of recorded music in Colombia ($74 million).
“Music marketers, take note. For brands in Mexico City and Bogotá, there is a possible scenario where domestic marketing (at domestic prices) creates export demand (at U.S. prices), thereby creating arbitrage – a better deal,” Page wrote.
Notably, Mexico has surpassed Canada to become the second-largest music exporter to the United States, behind the United Kingdom.
Page also looked at the global music trade from another angle – Youtube subscriber. In one country, he compared the number of subscribers to foreign YouTube channels with the number of foreigners subscribing to local YouTube channels, that is, the ratio of “outward looking” to “inward looking”.
On this metric, South Korea is the winner among the major music markets, 16.7 YouTube subscribers are “looking in” for everyone who is “looking out”. For Sweden the ratio is 7.0;For the United States, yes 2.5;For the UK this is 1.8.
“In fact, four Korean artists— black pink, base station, August Dand psychology – Everyone has more subscribers on YouTube than the population of their own country.
On this metric, Puerto Rico is the winner; 38 Artists with more subscribers than the population of the island.
Please provide better data
As the music business globalizes and emerging markets become increasingly important – both in terms of revenue for rights holders and as a source of new talent – Page laments the lack of data from many corners of the world.
“Global needs mean global. The United Nations recognizes 193 countries; international federation of food industry The yearbook reported only 56,” Page wrote.
“Similarly, CISACThe global collections report is not global either. Shane Shapiro Music Ecology Department Centercounting more than 42 people who don’t even have their own CMO.
Page believes that better data will lead to better numbers for the industry.
“Double tailwinds will push the global value of copyrights even higher. First, (re)emerging markets will catch up with wealthy markets; second, as they do, they will gain more measurement attention. More value, more value being tracked.global music business
