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Goldman Sachs is ‘very impressed’ with Microsoft, and forecasts ‘behind the scenes …’
Microsoft offered Wall Street its clearest signal yet that its massive capital commitments to artificial intelligence are yielding tangible, diversified revenue streams. The performance sparked a historic rally in the software giant’s equity, driving its sharpest single-day gain in nearly 18 years. The catalyst came as Microsoft reported its fastest acceleration in cloud revenue since 2022. The results demonstrated that its core Azure infrastructure and enterprise AI offerings are expanding rapidly among corporate clients, while management simultaneously signaled a moderation in capital expenditure growth—addressing a key area of investor anxiety over margin compression.In an interview on Bloomberg Television, Goldman Sachs Group managing director and senior equity research analyst Gabriela Borges highlighted the shift in market sentiment. “You’re seeing more breadcrumbs around Microsoft’s ability to pull varying levers on the monetization side that perhaps were not nearly as obvious as before,” Borges said. Following the quarterly report, Borges reiterated her Buy rating on Microsoft while raising her 12-month price target nearly 5% to $640, implying a potential upside of approximately 64% from Wednesday’s closing price. During intraday trading in New York on Thursday, Microsoft shares surged 17% to $457 — positioning the company for its largest single-day percentage gain since October 2008.At the earnings call, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said that the company now counted more than 30 million paid users of Microsoft 365 Copilot, the AI assistant sold as an add-on to the ubiquitous Office software. That’s up from roughly 20 million three months earlier.
How Microsoft overcame the Bear Case
The market reaction represents a potential turning point for Microsoft, which had faced skepticism over the commercial traction of its generative AI portfolio, particularly relative to hyper-scaler competitors.“One of the bear cases on this stock for the last six to 12 months has been that Copilot is not as good a product as it could be,” Borges noted, referencing Microsoft’s flagship suite of AI productivity tools. However, she emphasized that rapid iteration is closing the capability gap, asserting that product quality is improving and expanding user bases are creating a “positive feedback loop” that accelerates model refinement and utility.Borges characterized Microsoft as a compelling “discovery value” opportunity, particularly within an enterprise environment where rival Google-parent Alphabet Inc has secured significant early territory. Alphabet’s Google Cloud division has built strong momentum, with nearly 90% of Fortune 100 companies adopting its enterprise-grade Gemini platform.Addressing this competitive dynamic, Borges observed that Microsoft had essentially been stuck in a “penalty box for a number of quarters,” as institutional investors defaulted to the narrative that Google held a decisive lead in fundamental model performance and enterprise deployment.However, Microsoft’s latest operating metrics indicate that the perceived divide may be narrowing faster than anticipated. The company revealed that Microsoft 365 Copilot has surpassed 30 million paid seats—a substantial increase from roughly 20 million recorded just three months prior.The next 12 months, Borges argued, will likely demonstrate that the competitive gap between the two tech titans “is not as bad as people think it is,” pointing to “pretty significant improvement behind the scenes” in Microsoft’s software stack and enterprise integration.
Cautious optimism on AI
Despite the strong quarterly numbers, Borges acknowledged that large-scale corporate implementation of generative AI tools remains in its initial phases. She described the current corporate experimentation phase as throwing “a lot of spaghetti at the wall in order to find good product-market fit,” but expressed strong conviction that viable, high-ROI enterprise use cases will mature rapidly.Borges cited her firm’s own internal deployment of advanced software tools as a baseline for the broader corporate learning curve.“I have no doubt we will be in a position six months from now, a year from now — even as I reflect back on our own experience at Goldman Sachs over the last 12 months — the progress that we’ve made with being able to see how these tools can actually help in our day-to-day,” Borges said.
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